In Malcolm Gladwell's Blink, he referenced how Professor Gottman can predict which couples will survive the long-term with just a short meeting.
"University of Washington researchers who have been putting marriages under the equivalent of a microscope say it is possible to predict which newlywed couples will divorce from the way partners interact in just the first three minutes of a discussion about an area of continuing disagreement.
Couples who later divorced began these talks with significantly greater displays of negative emotions, words and gestures and fewer positive ones than did couples who remained married over the course of a six-year study."
And with a longer study (one hour interview, past relationship research):
"Psychologists trying to determine why marriages flourish or end in divorce have refined a tool that predicts with 87 percent accuracy which newlywed couples will remain married and which will divorce four to six years later. It is also 81 percent accurate in predicting which marriages will survive after seven to nine years."
Kudoz to Professor Gottman. However, a more relevant question is: can _you_ predict the long term relations around you just by "blinking"? I can't, hence I don't see any practical application of Malcolm's "Blink".
He is, but in that case, he's right. You can't avoid conflict long term, but how you resolve them is very important. It is very possible to be in sharp disagreement over something and yet resolve the situation with respect intact.
I don't necessarily agree in all cases. Couples who fight 'rationally' may well be rational enough to see that they're not the right match, and that they should both keep looking. That's certainly been the case with me.
People who are staying together despite hating each others' guts may be doing it for reasons that will, paradoxically, keep them together for the long run, to their detriment. Sometimes the right answer is to split up.
"University of Washington researchers who have been putting marriages under the equivalent of a microscope say it is possible to predict which newlywed couples will divorce from the way partners interact in just the first three minutes of a discussion about an area of continuing disagreement.
Couples who later divorced began these talks with significantly greater displays of negative emotions, words and gestures and fewer positive ones than did couples who remained married over the course of a six-year study."
And with a longer study (one hour interview, past relationship research):
"Psychologists trying to determine why marriages flourish or end in divorce have refined a tool that predicts with 87 percent accuracy which newlywed couples will remain married and which will divorce four to six years later. It is also 81 percent accurate in predicting which marriages will survive after seven to nine years."
http://www.washington.edu/newsroom/news/1999archive/09-99arc...
http://www.washington.edu/newsroom/news/2000archive/03-00arc...