There are only ~420 refineries globally still operating. ~21% of global oil refining capacity (101 out of 420 assessed sites) is at risk of closure by 2035 due to rising carbon costs, environmental policies, and a long-term drop in gasoline demand. [My note: this is less than 10 years away]
I used to think "We're never going to run out of oil, meaning we'll never move off of it." and I was mistaken. After more research, I've come to the conclusion that while we might never run out of oil, refinery capacity will only decline into the future, creating supply chain death spirals over time in various parts of the system. If you want to end the use of fossil fuels, refineries are the weakest link in the chain. No new ones will be built due to the risk of stranded capital and the time to build them considering the forward global oil demand trajectory. [My note: China destroys 1M barrels of daily global oil demand for every 24 months they produce EVs, at current run rates, and has enough EV manufacturing capacity for global demand]
TLDR If rich people are going to burn petroleum instead of biodiesel (used vegetable oil for diesel like engine use cases) or alcohol (top fuel dragsters), good luck refining it yourself or importing it. Similar to how if the end of the world arrives, and you need pharmaceuticals to survive, you'll only last as long as the supply chain for said pharmaceuticals survives if you cannot make it yourself.
I used to think "We're never going to run out of oil, meaning we'll never move off of it." and I was mistaken. After more research, I've come to the conclusion that while we might never run out of oil, refinery capacity will only decline into the future, creating supply chain death spirals over time in various parts of the system. If you want to end the use of fossil fuels, refineries are the weakest link in the chain. No new ones will be built due to the risk of stranded capital and the time to build them considering the forward global oil demand trajectory. [My note: China destroys 1M barrels of daily global oil demand for every 24 months they produce EVs, at current run rates, and has enough EV manufacturing capacity for global demand]
TLDR If rich people are going to burn petroleum instead of biodiesel (used vegetable oil for diesel like engine use cases) or alcohol (top fuel dragsters), good luck refining it yourself or importing it. Similar to how if the end of the world arrives, and you need pharmaceuticals to survive, you'll only last as long as the supply chain for said pharmaceuticals survives if you cannot make it yourself.
Global refinery closure outlook to 2035 - https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/global-refinery-closure... - March 31st, 2025
(think in systems)