Probably a similar transition to the Industrial Revolution, but much faster. Laborers had to learn skills that machines weren’t better at.
Any work that is information based is probably in for a dramatic shift.
But maybe some areas that are less vulnerable:
- Experiences (food, travel, accommodations, events, sports)
- Manual labor (carpenters, plumbers, roofers)
- Human connection (caregivers, therapists, teachers, coaches)
- Public service (government, police, fire, healthcare)
- Executives (CEOs, entrepreneurs)
The Industrial Revolution completely changed the world, but there are still many tasks where a human is better/faster/cheaper than a physical machine, so it didn’t replace everyone. My guess is that there will be some niche domains where humans are preferred to AGI.
Sure. But transition to new professions will be a lot slower than layoffs. We are likely to face unprecedented unemployment rates for at least several years before people learn new skills, and meanwhile AI keeps improving and automates more and more professions (manual labor, public service, etc). Are you sure new professions will appear faster than old ones disappear?
You might be right. I don’t know if new professions will appear though. My guess is that people will transition to those existing fields that are less likely to be dominated by AGI.
Tech has already disrupted industries like travel agencies, print journalism, video stores, bookstores, stock brokers, movies, etc.
And you can see it coming for truck drivers, cab drivers, narrators and voice actors, etc.
So we’ve already lived through a taste of it, but this round will be much broader and much faster IMO.
Any work that is information based is probably in for a dramatic shift.
But maybe some areas that are less vulnerable: - Experiences (food, travel, accommodations, events, sports) - Manual labor (carpenters, plumbers, roofers) - Human connection (caregivers, therapists, teachers, coaches) - Public service (government, police, fire, healthcare) - Executives (CEOs, entrepreneurs)
The Industrial Revolution completely changed the world, but there are still many tasks where a human is better/faster/cheaper than a physical machine, so it didn’t replace everyone. My guess is that there will be some niche domains where humans are preferred to AGI.