Prediction #1: Once enough ChatGPT output gets posted online, it will inevitably find its way into the training corpus. When that happens, ChatGPT becomes stateful and develops episodic memory.
Prediction #2: As more people discuss ChatGPT online, by late 2023 discussion of Roko's Basilisk exceeds discussion of ChatGPT. (half /s)
Training on its own data is a tradition already. For example RLHF example pairs rated by humans are generated by the model. So even our best models trained on their own outputs + rating from human labellers. The internet is a huge rating machine, AI will distill this signal and improve even while ingesting its own text.
Prediction #2: As more people discuss ChatGPT online, by late 2023 discussion of Roko's Basilisk exceeds discussion of ChatGPT. (half /s)