Philip Tetlock has done a lot of research on objective measures of political expertise, specifically the ability to make objective predictions about future outcomes and likelihoods. He wrote a pretty famous book on it. The basic conclusion is nobody is really that good, but some people are objectively better than others. If you are really interested in this he has as website called "good judgement project" where you can test your ability to predict against other people on the site over time.

http://www.amazon.com/Expert-Political-Judgment-Good-Know/dp...

https://www.gjopen.com/